Combat Edge Intelligence

Jay Jay Wilson vs Magomed Mustafaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-2-0Record14-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
74"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Alliance Jiu-JitsuTeamFight Club Akhmat

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jay Jay WilsonNow 1704
If they win+16→ 1720
If they lose-16→ 1688
Magomed MustafaevNow 1699
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1597 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
TBD
Strike accuracy
59%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.68
TBD
Strike defense
41%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.31
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
TBD
Takedown defense
23%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.41

Trajectory

Jay Jay WilsonMagomed Mustafaev
17002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (42%)
KO/TKO
10 (71%)
4 (33%)
Submission
4 (29%)
3 (25%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Jay Jay Wilson71%
Magomed Mustafaev 29%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Jay Jay Wilson a 71% favorite over Magomed Mustafaev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1704 vs 1699), separated by just 5 points.

Jay Jay Wilson finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Mustafaev 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.