Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Stephens vs Johnny Sampaio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-23-0Record3-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Alliance MMATeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+12→ 1563
If they lose-12→ 1539
Johnny SampaioNow 1546
If they win+24→ 1570
If they lose-24→ 1522

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
1.32
41%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.64
59%
Strike defense
50%
1.11
Takedown avg.
9.89
38%
Takedown accuracy
50%
62%
Takedown defense
0%
0.37
Submission avg.
9.89

Trajectory

Jeremy StephensJohnny Sampaio
1550200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

19 (66%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
2 (7%)
Submission
2 (67%)
8 (28%)
Decision
1 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jeremy Stephens and Johnny Sampaio within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1551 vs 1546), separated by just 5 points.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Johnny Sampaio 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.