Combat Edge Intelligence

Jeremy Stephens vs Yusuke Kasuya

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-23-0Record15-9-2
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
71"Reach67.00
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Alliance MMATeamCrown Dojo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+12→ 1563
If they lose-12→ 1539
Yusuke KasuyaNow 1549
If they win+24→ 1573
If they lose-24→ 1525

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1684 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
2.17
41%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.34
59%
Strike defense
49%
1.11
Takedown avg.
1.36
38%
Takedown accuracy
33%
62%
Takedown defense
0%
0.37
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jeremy StephensYusuke Kasuya
150015502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

19 (66%)
KO/TKO
3 (20%)
2 (7%)
Submission
11 (73%)
8 (28%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Yusuke Kasuya61%
Jeremy Stephens 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Yusuke Kasuya a 61% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jeremy Stephens's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1551 vs 1549), separated by just 2 points.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Yusuke Kasuya 93%.

Jeremy Stephens carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.