Jesse Butler vs John Garza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record6-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'8"
40,0"Reach-
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Fortis MMATeamAzTex MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1623
If they lose-16→ 1591
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jesse ButlerJohn Garza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Garza67%
Jesse Butler 33%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes John Garza a 67% favorite over Jesse Butler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1607 vs 1612), separated by just 5 points.
Jesse Butler enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
John Garza enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jesse Butler finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, John Garza 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.