Combat Edge Intelligence

Jesse Fujarczyk vs Patrick Vespaziani

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-2-0Record6-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'7"
TBDReach79"
225 lbsWeight242 lbs
TBDTeamMMA Spirit

What's at stake

Patrick Vespaziani is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jesse Fujarczyk carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jesse FujarczykNow 1487
If they win+27→ 1514
If they lose-21→ 1466
Patrick VespazianiNow 1529
If they win+14→ 1543
If they lose-18→ 1511

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Jesse FujarczykPatrick Vespaziani
150015501600200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
6 (100%)
2 (100%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Patrick Vespaziani72%
Jesse Fujarczyk 28%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Patrick Vespaziani a 72% favorite over Jesse Fujarczyk in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Patrick Vespaziani holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1529 to 1487, a 42-point edge.

Patrick Vespaziani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Patrick Vespaziani 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.