Jesse Murray vs Rob MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record5-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
78"ReachTBD
206 lbsWeight230 lbs
Strongstyle MMATeamFranco Behring
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1566
If they lose-16→ 1534
If they win+25→ 1567
If they lose-23→ 1519
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jesse MurrayRob MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jesse Murray63%
Rob MacDonald 37%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Jesse Murray a 63% favorite over Rob MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1550 vs 1542), separated by just 8 points.
Rob MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jesse Murray finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rob MacDonald 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.