Combat Edge Intelligence

Jessica Aguilar vs Melissa Martinez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-10-0Record8-2-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'3"Height5'2"
63,0"Reach 66"
107 lbsWeight115 lbs
Liborio ExperienceTeamBonebreakers Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jessica AguilarNow 1612
If they win+12→ 1624
If they lose-12→ 1600
Melissa MartinezNow 1610
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.93
Sig. strikes / min
3.90
51%
Strike accuracy
52%
7.19
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.33
54%
Strike defense
56%
0.94
Takedown avg.
0.50
25%
Takedown accuracy
50%
50%
Takedown defense
25%
0.24
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jessica AguilarMelissa Martinez
1600165020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (10%)
KO/TKO
5 (63%)
8 (40%)
Submission
0 (0%)
10 (50%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Melissa Martinez70%
Jessica Aguilar 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Melissa Martinez a 70% favorite over Jessica Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jessica Aguilar's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1610), separated by just 2 points.

Jessica Aguilar enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jessica Aguilar finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Melissa Martinez 63%.

Melissa Martinez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.