Combat Edge Intelligence

Jesus Aguilar vs Lone’er Kavanagh

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record10-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'4"
62"Reach67"
128 lbsWeight126 lbs
Victory Fight ClubTeamGreat Britain Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jesus AguilarNow 1685
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
Lone’er KavanaghNow 1689
If they win+16→ 1705
If they lose-16→ 1673

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.54
Sig. strikes / min
4.13
38%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.49
61%
Strike defense
57%
1.52
Takedown avg.
1.12
30%
Takedown accuracy
45%
45%
Takedown defense
94%
1.14
Submission avg.
0.22

Trajectory

Jesus AguilarLone’er Kavanagh
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
7 (58%)
Submission
1 (10%)
4 (33%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Lone’er Kavanagh61%
Jesus Aguilar 39%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Lone’er Kavanagh a 61% favorite over Jesus Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1689), separated by just 4 points.

Jesus Aguilar finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Lone’er Kavanagh 50%.

Lone’er Kavanagh carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.