Combat Edge Intelligence

Joaquim Silva vs Lance Gibson Jr.

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record10-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
69"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGibson Kickboxing & Pankration

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Joaquim SilvaNow 1650
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
Lance Gibson Jr.Now 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1519 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.66
Sig. strikes / min
2
43%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.33
53%
Strike defense
54%
0.39
Takedown avg.
2
50%
Takedown accuracy
67%
69%
Takedown defense
50%
0.78
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Joaquim SilvaLance Gibson Jr.
16502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (50%)
3 (21%)
Submission
3 (30%)
4 (29%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Gibson Jr.66%
Joaquim Silva 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Gibson Jr. a 66% favorite over Joaquim Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1650 vs 1652), separated by just 2 points.

Joaquim Silva finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Lance Gibson Jr. 80%.

Lance Gibson Jr. carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.