Combat Edge Intelligence

Joaquim Silva vs Marcus Aurelio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record22-10-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
69"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamElite Mixed Fighters

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Joaquim SilvaNow 1650
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
Marcus AurelioNow 1649
If they win+12→ 1661
If they lose-12→ 1637

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.66
Sig. strikes / min
2.36
43%
Strike accuracy
33%
4.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.59
53%
Strike defense
60%
0.39
Takedown avg.
1.16
50%
Takedown accuracy
14%
69%
Takedown defense
28%
0.78
Submission avg.
0.70

Trajectory

Joaquim SilvaMarcus Aurelio
1650201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (23%)
3 (21%)
Submission
14 (64%)
4 (29%)
Decision
3 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Joaquim Silva70%
Marcus Aurelio 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Joaquim Silva a 70% favorite over Marcus Aurelio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1650 vs 1649), separated by just 1 points.

Joaquim Silva finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Aurelio 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.