Joe Cason vs Justin Tafa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-1-0Record7-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
TBDReach74"
223 lbsWeight265 lbs
TBDTeamNTG Fight & Fitness
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1626
If they lose-24→ 1578
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe CasonJustin Tafa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa52%
Joe Cason 48%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 52% favorite over Joe Cason in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1602 vs 1608), separated by just 6 points.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Cason finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Justin Tafa 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.