Joe Moreira vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-2-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height-
TBDReach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
TBDTeamTeam Ryano Waterford
What's at stake
Joe Moreira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Matthew O'Rourke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1516
If they lose-26→ 1468
If they win+26→ 1497
If they lose-22→ 1449
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1478 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe MoreiraMatthew O'Rourke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke57%
Joe Moreira 43%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 57% favorite over Joe Moreira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joe Moreira's way (47%).
Joe Moreira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1494 to 1471, a 23-point edge.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.