Combat Edge Intelligence

Joel Sutton vs Leonardo Guimaraes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-4-1Record15-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReach73"
202 lbsWeight205 lbs
TBDTeamTata Fight Team

What's at stake

Joel Sutton is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Joel SuttonNow 1470
If they win+21→ 1491
If they lose-27→ 1443
Leonardo GuimaraesNow 1432
If they win+18→ 1450
If they lose-14→ 1418

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1510 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Joel SuttonLeonardo Guimaraes
14001450150015501998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (100%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
0 (0%)
Submission
8 (53%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Leonardo Guimaraes58%
Joel Sutton 42%Elo baseline: 45%

The Combat Edge model makes Leonardo Guimaraes a 58% favorite over Joel Sutton in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joel Sutton's way (45%).

Joel Sutton holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1470 to 1432, a 38-point edge.

Leonardo Guimaraes 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.