Combat Edge Intelligence

John Alessio vs Ottman Azaitar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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John Alessio
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John Alessio

“The Natural”

35-17-0LightweightBFC

1665Good

Tale of the tape

35-17-0Record13-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
TBDReach71"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamJupps Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

John AlessioNow 1665
If they win+12→ 1677
If they lose-12→ 1653
Ottman AzaitarNow 1664
If they win+16→ 1680
If they lose-16→ 1648

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.10
Sig. strikes / min
5.73
39%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.96
55%
Strike defense
48%
1.85
Takedown avg.
0
38%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
71%
Takedown defense
100%
1.16
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

John AlessioOttman Azaitar
165017002012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

10 (30%)
KO/TKO
10 (77%)
15 (45%)
Submission
2 (15%)
8 (24%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Ottman Azaitar56%
John Alessio 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ottman Azaitar a 56% favorite over John Alessio in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Alessio's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1665 vs 1664), separated by just 1 points.

Ottman Azaitar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

John Alessio finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Ottman Azaitar 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.