Combat Edge Intelligence

John Castañeda vs Magomed Magomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

21-8-1Record22-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'7"
71"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight137 lbs
The AcademyTeamDagFighter

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

John CastañedaNow 1696
If they win+12→ 1708
If they lose-12→ 1684
Magomed MagomedovNow 1703
If they win+12→ 1715
If they lose-12→ 1691

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.42
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
51%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.94
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
54%
Strike defense
TBD
1.68
Takedown avg.
TBD
37%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
74%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.13
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

John CastañedaMagomed Magomedov
1700202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (38%)
KO/TKO
4 (18%)
6 (29%)
Submission
10 (45%)
7 (33%)
Decision
8 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Magomed Magomedov52%
John Castañeda 48%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Magomedov a 52% favorite over John Castañeda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1696 vs 1703), separated by just 7 points.

John Castañeda finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Magomedov 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.