John Castañeda vs MarQuel Mederos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-8-1Record11-1-1
BantamweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
71"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight155 lbs
The AcademyTeamFactory X
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1708
If they lose-12→ 1684
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John CastañedaMarQuel Mederos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting John Castañeda and MarQuel Mederos within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1696 vs 1687), separated by just 9 points.
John Castañeda finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, MarQuel Mederos 55%.
John Castañeda carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.