Combat Edge Intelligence

John Cholish vs Lucas Brennan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'11"
TBDReach71"
155 lbsWeight146 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamNext Generation MMA Frisco

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

John CholishNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
Lucas BrennanNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.65
Sig. strikes / min
0
50%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
73%
Strike defense
TBD
1.82
Takedown avg.
TBD
31%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
79%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.36
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

John CholishLucas Brennan
1600165017002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (38%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
4 (50%)
Submission
8 (73%)
1 (13%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Brennan70%
John Cholish 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Brennan a 70% favorite over John Cholish in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Cholish's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1639 vs 1639), separated by just 0 points.

John Cholish enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

John Cholish finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Brennan 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.