John Dowdy vs Patrick Vespaziani
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record6-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'7"
TBDReach79"
207 lbsWeight242 lbs
TBDTeamMMA Spirit
What's at stake
Patrick Vespaziani is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — John Dowdy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1501
If they lose-20→ 1453
If they win+13→ 1542
If they lose-19→ 1510
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1530 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John DowdyPatrick Vespaziani
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Patrick Vespaziani70%
John Dowdy 30%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Patrick Vespaziani a 70% favorite over John Dowdy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Patrick Vespaziani holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1529 to 1473, a 56-point edge.
Patrick Vespaziani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Patrick Vespaziani 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.