Combat Edge Intelligence

John Garza vs Motonobu Tezuka

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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John Garza
us

John Garza

“Mowgli”

6-2-0BantamweightUFC

1599Solid

Tale of the tape

6-2-0Record30-15-6
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
68"ReachTBD
136 lbsWeight135 lbs
AzTex MMATeamSecret Base Dominate

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

John GarzaNow 1599
If they win+24→ 1623
If they lose-24→ 1575
Motonobu TezukaNow 1602
If they win+12→ 1614
If they lose-12→ 1590

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1533 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.87
TBD
Strike accuracy
24%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
TBD
Strike defense
51%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.50
TBD
Takedown accuracy
11%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

John GarzaMotonobu Tezuka
150015501600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
7 (23%)
1 (17%)
Submission
7 (23%)
2 (33%)
Decision
16 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

John Garza84%
Motonobu Tezuka 16%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes John Garza a 84% favorite over Motonobu Tezuka in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Motonobu Tezuka's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1602), separated by just 3 points.

Motonobu Tezuka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

John Garza finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Motonobu Tezuka 47%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.