John Gunther vs Matt Frevola
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-1-0Record11-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
39,5"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Strong Style Fight TeamTeamGracie Tampa South
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1659
If they lose-24→ 1611
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John GuntherMatt Frevola
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Gunther55%
Matt Frevola 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes John Gunther a 55% favorite over Matt Frevola in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Frevola's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1637), separated by just 2 points.
Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
John Gunther finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Matt Frevola 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.