John Polakowski vs Luan Duarte
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-2-0Record14-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
The PitTeamTata Fight Team
What's at stake
John Polakowski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Luan Duarte carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1499
If they lose-25→ 1451
If they win+17→ 1476
If they lose-15→ 1444
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John PolakowskiLuan Duarte
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte78%
John Polakowski 22%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 78% favorite over John Polakowski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Polakowski's way (48%).
John Polakowski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1476 to 1459, a 17-point edge.
John Polakowski enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.