Combat Edge Intelligence

Jon Madsen vs Mukhamad Vakhaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record13-9-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
222 lbsWeight266 lbs
HIT SquadTeamFight Club Akhmat

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jon MadsenNow 1610
If they win+24→ 1634
If they lose-24→ 1586
Mukhamad VakhaevNow 1609
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1573 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.46
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
41%
Strike accuracy
TBD
1.18
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
81%
Strike defense
TBD
1.32
Takedown avg.
TBD
71%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
70%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jon MadsenMukhamad Vakhaev
16001650201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (50%)
KO/TKO
6 (46%)
0 (0%)
Submission
5 (38%)
4 (50%)
Decision
2 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Mukhamad Vakhaev58%
Jon Madsen 42%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mukhamad Vakhaev a 58% favorite over Jon Madsen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jon Madsen's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1609), separated by just 1 points.

Mukhamad Vakhaev enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jon Madsen finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mukhamad Vakhaev 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.