Jonatas Novaes vs Tariq Pell
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-5-0Record8-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Novaes BJJ TeamTeamBlood Sweat and Tears
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1507 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1491 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jonatas NovaesTariq Pell
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tariq Pell70%
Jonatas Novaes 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tariq Pell a 70% favorite over Jonatas Novaes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jonatas Novaes's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1609 vs 1608), separated by just 1 points.
Jonatas Novaes enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jonatas Novaes finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Tariq Pell 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.