Jordan Molinari vs Rafael Dias
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-2-0Record20-9-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'4"
-ReachTBD
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamSD Training System
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1577
If they lose-25→ 1529
If they win+12→ 1558
If they lose-12→ 1534
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jordan MolinariRafael Dias
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jordan Molinari67%
Rafael Dias 33%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Jordan Molinari a 67% favorite over Rafael Dias in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1554 vs 1546), separated by just 8 points.
Jordan Molinari enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jordan Molinari finishes 0% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Dias 40%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.