Combat Edge Intelligence

José Montanha vs Timothy Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record18-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
-Reach77.50
265 lbsWeight266 lbs
Gile Riberio TeamTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

José MontanhaNow 1582
If they win+24→ 1606
If they lose-24→ 1558
Timothy JohnsonNow 1586
If they win+24→ 1610
If they lose-24→ 1562

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
3.43
TBD
Strike accuracy
45%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.08
TBD
Strike defense
44%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.09
TBD
Takedown accuracy
24%
TBD
Takedown defense
69%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

José MontanhaTimothy Johnson
155016002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (40%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
3 (60%)
Submission
3 (17%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

José Montanha62%
Timothy Johnson 38%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes José Montanha a 62% favorite over Timothy Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Timothy Johnson's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1582 vs 1586), separated by just 4 points.

José Montanha enters on a 3-fight win streak.

José Montanha finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Timothy Johnson 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.