Combat Edge Intelligence

Jose Augusto vs Naoya Ogawa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record7-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
TBDReachTBD
263 lbsWeight253 lbs
Pitbull BrothersTeamUFO

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jose AugustoNow 1593
If they win+16→ 1609
If they lose-16→ 1577
Naoya OgawaNow 1596
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jose AugustoNaoya Ogawa
16001650200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (56%)
KO/TKO
2 (29%)
2 (22%)
Submission
5 (71%)
2 (22%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Jose Augusto63%
Naoya Ogawa 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jose Augusto a 63% favorite over Naoya Ogawa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Naoya Ogawa's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1593 vs 1596), separated by just 3 points.

Naoya Ogawa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jose Augusto finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Naoya Ogawa 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.