Combat Edge Intelligence

Jose Augusto vs Shelton Graves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record11-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
TBDReach40,0"
263 lbsWeight265 lbs
Pitbull BrothersTeamTop Flight MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jose AugustoNow 1593
If they win+16→ 1609
If they lose-16→ 1577
Shelton GravesNow 1591
If they win+16→ 1607
If they lose-16→ 1575

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
TBD
Strike accuracy
69%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.81
TBD
Strike defense
33%
TBD
Takedown avg.
4.86
TBD
Takedown accuracy
57%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jose AugustoShelton Graves
1600202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (56%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
2 (22%)
Submission
1 (9%)
2 (22%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Jose Augusto66%
Shelton Graves 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jose Augusto a 66% favorite over Shelton Graves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1593 vs 1591), separated by just 2 points.

Jose Augusto finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Shelton Graves 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.