Combat Edge Intelligence

Joseph Holmes vs Joseph Luciano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record10-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'1"
80"Reach74"
189 lbsWeight185 lbs
WAR Training CenterTeamAbsolute MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Joseph HolmesNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Joseph LucianoNow 1612
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.88
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
53%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.08
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
1.49
Takedown avg.
TBD
40%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
50%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.75
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Joseph HolmesJoseph Luciano
155016001650202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
1 (10%)
6 (75%)
Submission
6 (60%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Joseph Holmes52%
Joseph Luciano 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Joseph Holmes a 52% favorite over Joseph Luciano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1612), separated by just 1 points.

Joseph Holmes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Joseph Holmes finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Joseph Luciano 70%.

Joseph Holmes carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.