Josh Barnett vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
35-8-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'5"
78,0"Reach78"
248 lbsWeight251 lbs
UWF USATeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1789
If they lose-12→ 1765
If they win+16→ 1791
If they lose-16→ 1759
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh BarnettTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Aspinall72%
Josh Barnett 28%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Aspinall a 72% favorite over Josh Barnett in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Barnett's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1777 vs 1775), separated by just 2 points.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Josh Barnett finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Josh Barnett and Tom Aspinall share 1 common opponent: Andrei Arlovski.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.