Josh Culibao vs Richie Smullen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-1Record15-5-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
73"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Igor MMATeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-16→ 1619
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh CulibaoRichie Smullen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Richie Smullen60%
Josh Culibao 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Richie Smullen a 60% favorite over Josh Culibao in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Culibao's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1635), separated by just 2 points.
Josh Culibao enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Richie Smullen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Josh Culibao finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Richie Smullen 80%.
Josh Culibao carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.