Combat Edge Intelligence

Josh Fremd vs Josh Samman

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-6-0Record12-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'3"
76"Reach79,0"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Factory XTeamMMA Masters

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Josh FremdNow 1610
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594
Josh SammanNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.52
Sig. strikes / min
2.08
44%
Strike accuracy
53%
2.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.47
47%
Strike defense
35%
0.66
Takedown avg.
1.09
25%
Takedown accuracy
33%
30%
Takedown defense
33%
1.09
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Josh FremdJosh Samman
160016502015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
8 (67%)
4 (36%)
Submission
3 (25%)
3 (27%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Fremd52%
Josh Samman 48%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Fremd a 52% favorite over Josh Samman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1606), separated by just 4 points.

Josh Fremd enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Josh Samman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Josh Fremd finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Josh Samman 92%.

Josh Samman carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.