Combat Edge Intelligence

Josh Fremd vs Marcelo Guimaraes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

11-6-0Record9-2-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'0"
76"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Factory XTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Josh FremdNow 1610
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594
Marcelo GuimaraesNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.52
Sig. strikes / min
4.67
44%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.41
47%
Strike defense
63%
0.66
Takedown avg.
1.99
25%
Takedown accuracy
14%
30%
Takedown defense
0%
1.09
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Josh FremdMarcelo Guimaraes
160016502015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
1 (11%)
4 (36%)
Submission
2 (22%)
3 (27%)
Decision
6 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Fremd58%
Marcelo Guimaraes 42%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Fremd a 58% favorite over Marcelo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1606), separated by just 4 points.

Josh Fremd enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Marcelo Guimaraes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Josh Fremd finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Marcelo Guimaraes 33%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.