Combat Edge Intelligence

Josh Koscheck vs Justin Burlinson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record8-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
73"Reach41,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Dethrone Base CampTeamThe Dungeon BJJ and MMA Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Josh KoscheckNow 1644
If they win+12→ 1656
If they lose-12→ 1632
Justin BurlinsonNow 1645
If they win+16→ 1661
If they lose-16→ 1629

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1687 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.79
Sig. strikes / min
1.24
36%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.09
63%
Strike defense
62%
2.46
Takedown avg.
0
48%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
64%
Takedown defense
100%
0.43
Submission avg.
9.28

Trajectory

Josh KoscheckJustin Burlinson
160016501700201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

6 (35%)
KO/TKO
2 (25%)
4 (24%)
Submission
6 (75%)
7 (41%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Burlinson64%
Josh Koscheck 36%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Burlinson a 64% favorite over Josh Koscheck in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1644 vs 1645), separated by just 1 points.

Josh Koscheck enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Justin Burlinson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Josh Koscheck finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Justin Burlinson 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.