Josh Rafferty vs Michael Dubois
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-8-0Record15-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach70"
169 lbsWeight170 lbs
Meat Truck Inc.TeamStrike Academy
What's at stake
Michael Dubois is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Josh Rafferty carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1513
If they lose-15→ 1481
If they win+11→ 1529
If they lose-13→ 1505
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1499 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh RaffertyMichael Dubois
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Dubois75%
Josh Rafferty 25%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Dubois a 75% favorite over Josh Rafferty in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Michael Dubois holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1518 to 1496, a 22-point edge.
Josh Rafferty enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Michael Dubois enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Josh Rafferty finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Michael Dubois 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.