Combat Edge Intelligence

Josiah Harrell vs Mike Graves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-1-0Record11-1-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'10"
68"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Grove City BJJTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Josiah HarrellNow 1685
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
Mike GravesNow 1683
If they win+16→ 1699
If they lose-16→ 1667

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1505 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
1.25
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.47
TBD
Strike defense
59%
TBD
Takedown avg.
4.80
TBD
Takedown accuracy
52%
TBD
Takedown defense
67%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Josiah HarrellMike Graves
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
4 (36%)
Submission
3 (27%)
1 (9%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Josiah Harrell72%
Mike Graves 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Josiah Harrell a 72% favorite over Mike Graves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1683), separated by just 2 points.

Mike Graves enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Josiah Harrell finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Mike Graves 73%.

Mike Graves carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.