Combat Edge Intelligence

Josua Hernández vs Willie Gates

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

2-3-0Record12-13-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'8"
65"Reach39,0"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Invictus No Love TeamTeamPinnacle MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Josua HernándezNow 1478
If they win+23→ 1501
If they lose-25→ 1453
Willie GatesNow 1466
If they win+12→ 1478
If they lose-12→ 1454

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1499 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.80
TBD
Strike accuracy
39%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.28
TBD
Strike defense
39%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
68%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Josua HernándezWillie Gates
1450150020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (42%)
1 (50%)
Submission
4 (33%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Josua Hernández70%
Willie Gates 30%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Josua Hernández a 70% favorite over Willie Gates in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1478 vs 1466), separated by just 12 points.

Willie Gates enters on a 9-fight loss streak.

Willie Gates 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.