Junior dos Santos vs Justin Wren
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-11-0Record13-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
77"ReachTBD
250 lbsWeight265 lbs
Champion TeamTeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630
If they win+16→ 1664
If they lose-16→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Junior dos SantosJustin Wren
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Wren60%
Junior dos Santos 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Wren a 60% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1642 vs 1648), separated by just 6 points.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Justin Wren enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Junior dos Santos finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Justin Wren 77%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.