Junior dos Santos vs Mohammed Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-11-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
77"Reach79"
250 lbsWeight237 lbs
Champion TeamTeamWar Room Kickboxing & MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Junior dos SantosMohammed Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior dos Santos56%
Mohammed Usman 44%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior dos Santos a 56% favorite over Mohammed Usman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1642 vs 1638), separated by just 4 points.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Junior dos Santos finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Mohammed Usman 55%.
Mohammed Usman carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.