Combat Edge Intelligence

Junior dos Santos vs Thomas Petersen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-11-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
77"Reach74"
250 lbsWeight257 lbs
Champion TeamTeamSpartan MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Junior dos SantosNow 1642
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630
Thomas PetersenNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.49
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
48%
Strike accuracy
60%
3.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.61
56%
Strike defense
55%
0.30
Takedown avg.
3.01
50%
Takedown accuracy
43%
82%
Takedown defense
88%
0.06
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Junior dos SantosThomas Petersen
1650202420252026

Win method breakdown

16 (70%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
1 (4%)
Submission
1 (9%)
6 (26%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Thomas Petersen60%
Junior dos Santos 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 60% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Junior dos Santos's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1642 vs 1639), separated by just 3 points.

Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Junior dos Santos finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.

Junior dos Santos carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.