Junior Tafa vs Matt Hamill
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-6-0Record13-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
75"ReachTBD
249 lbsWeight205 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamIndependent
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
If they win+16→ 1572
If they lose-16→ 1540
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Junior TafaMatt Hamill
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior Tafa62%
Matt Hamill 38%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior Tafa a 62% favorite over Matt Hamill in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1560 vs 1556), separated by just 4 points.
Matt Hamill enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Junior Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hamill 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.