Justin Buchholz vs Melvin Guillard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
16-11-0Record32-22-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
IndependentTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1544
If they lose-12→ 1520
If they win+12→ 1533
If they lose-12→ 1509
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin BuchholzMelvin Guillard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Buchholz66%
Melvin Guillard 34%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Buchholz a 66% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1532 vs 1521), separated by just 11 points.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Justin Buchholz finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Guillard 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.