Justin Eilers vs Renan Ferreira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-7-1Record13-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'8"
TBDReach85"
235 lbsWeight264 lbs
Miletich Martial ArtsTeamTeam Nogueira
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1678
If they lose-12→ 1654
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin EilersRenan Ferreira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Renan Ferreira61%
Justin Eilers 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Renan Ferreira a 61% favorite over Justin Eilers in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Eilers's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1666 vs 1666), separated by just 0 points.
Renan Ferreira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Justin Eilers finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Renan Ferreira 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.