Justin Eilers vs Rodrigo Nascimento
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-7-1Record11-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'4"
TBDReach80"
235 lbsWeight265 lbs
Miletich Martial ArtsTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1678
If they lose-12→ 1654
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin EilersRodrigo Nascimento
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rodrigo Nascimento63%
Justin Eilers 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rodrigo Nascimento a 63% favorite over Justin Eilers in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Eilers's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1666 vs 1666), separated by just 0 points.
Justin Eilers finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Nascimento 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.