Justin Hawes vs Leonardo Guimaraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-8-1Record15-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach73"
199 lbsWeight205 lbs
Desert DogsTeamTata Fight Team
What's at stake
Justin Hawes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1473
If they lose-17→ 1441
If they win+17→ 1449
If they lose-15→ 1417
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1483 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin HawesLeonardo Guimaraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Leonardo Guimaraes53%
Justin Hawes 47%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Leonardo Guimaraes a 53% favorite over Justin Hawes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Hawes's way (46%).
Justin Hawes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1458 to 1432, a 26-point edge.
Justin Hawes finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Guimaraes 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.