Justin Hawes vs Regan Upshaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-8-1Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
199 lbsWeight205 lbs
Desert DogsTeamHavoc MMA
What's at stake
Regan Upshaw is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Justin Hawes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1475
If they lose-15→ 1443
If they win+23→ 1501
If they lose-25→ 1453
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1483 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin HawesRegan Upshaw
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Regan Upshaw70%
Justin Hawes 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Regan Upshaw a 70% favorite over Justin Hawes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Regan Upshaw holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1478 to 1458, a 20-point edge.
Justin Hawes finishes 57% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.