Justin McElfresh vs Karl Albrektsson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record14-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'6"Height6'2"
TBDReach75.50"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
TBDTeamPancrase Gym Sweden
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1532
If they lose-16→ 1500
If they win+24→ 1533
If they lose-24→ 1485
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin McElfreshKarl Albrektsson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karl Albrektsson52%
Justin McElfresh 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Karl Albrektsson a 52% favorite over Justin McElfresh in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin McElfresh's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1516 vs 1509), separated by just 7 points.
Karl Albrektsson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Justin McElfresh finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Karl Albrektsson 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.