Justin Tafa vs Roque Martinez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record18-9-2
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height5'10"
74"Reach72,0"
265 lbsWeight239 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamSpike 22
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
If they win+12→ 1618
If they lose-12→ 1594
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin TafaRoque Martinez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa70%
Roque Martinez 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 70% favorite over Roque Martinez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1606), separated by just 2 points.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Roque Martinez enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Justin Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Roque Martinez 67%.
Justin Tafa carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.