Justin Tafa vs Tsuyoshi Kosaka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record28-21-2
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height5'11"
74"ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight214 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamAlliance-Square
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
If they win+12→ 1619
If they lose-12→ 1595
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin TafaTsuyoshi Kosaka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa66%
Tsuyoshi Kosaka 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 66% favorite over Tsuyoshi Kosaka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1607), separated by just 1 points.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Justin Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Tsuyoshi Kosaka 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.