Justin Willis vs Lazar Todev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record14-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
41,0"Reach-
265 lbsWeight241 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamTiger Sportakademie
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
If they win+16→ 1680
If they lose-16→ 1648
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin WillisLazar Todev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lazar Todev62%
Justin Willis 38%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Lazar Todev a 62% favorite over Justin Willis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1664), separated by just 7 points.
Lazar Todev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Justin Willis finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Lazar Todev 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.