Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Willis vs Renan Ferreira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record13-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'8"
41,0"Reach85"
265 lbsWeight264 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamTeam Nogueira

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Justin WillisNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Renan FerreiraNow 1666
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.37
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
59%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
58%
Strike defense
TBD
0.96
Takedown avg.
TBD
67%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
36%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Justin WillisRenan Ferreira
1600165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (50%)
KO/TKO
11 (85%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (8%)
4 (50%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Renan Ferreira57%
Justin Willis 43%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Renan Ferreira a 57% favorite over Justin Willis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1666), separated by just 9 points.

Renan Ferreira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Justin Willis finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Renan Ferreira 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.